mescla.uncertainty.montecarlo

Monte Carlo uncertainty for mixing ratios.

Analytical propagation assumes local linearity and ignores the simplex constraints. Monte Carlo does neither: it re-solves the constrained problem for every draw, so the resulting intervals respect sum(f) = 1 and f >= 0 by construction. That matters most exactly where it is most needed – for samples near the edge of the mixing hull, where a fraction is pinned at zero and the sampling distribution is strongly asymmetric.

Joerin et al. (2002) used this approach to represent temporally variable end-members.

Functions

monte_carlo_ratios

Percentile intervals on mixing ratios by resampling the inputs.